From: Eric Jablow <erjablow at netacc.net>
To: WSFA members <WSFAlist at keithlynch.net>
Subject: [WSFA] Re: math problem
Date: Sat, 8 Mar 2003 10:07:07 -0500
Reply-To: WSFA members <WSFAlist at keithlynch.net>

Let's restrict this to one bettor and one casino.  Furthermore,
restrict it to one fair game and one stake.  That is, the bettor
has a dollars, the house has b dollars. each wager is 1 dollar,
and the odds are 50-50. Assume that the bettor keeps playing
until one side goes broke.

Then, with probability 1, one side does go broke.  With
probability a/(a+b), the bettor wins and ends up with a+b
dollars.  With probability b/(a+b), the house wins and gets all
the bettor's money. I'm not sure how this helps with the
particular problem, and I'm not sure the problem is well
defined.  It depends on how many games the bettor may make in a
day.

In the end, it is a social issue.  I believe that it is unethical
for a government to get money by encouraging people to gamble.
Governments that do this tell their citizens that the way to get
ahead in life is to gamble, not to work, not to study, not to
improve their lives.  They tell their citizens to act against
their own interests.  Consider the Virginia lottery commercial
where "Lady Luck" upbraids a couple for only betting when the
odds are good.

If society needs to raise money for worthy causes, raise taxes
democratically.  Or cut down on the services that it wants to
pay for.  If people bet on the lottery because they feel that
they have no other legal and moral way to succeed, then help
create the conditions where they can try to succeed.

How to do this--that's the real debate.

Respectfully,
Eric Jablow