To: WSFAlist at KeithLynch.net
Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2007 21:44:56 -0400
Subject: [WSFA] busses vs. cars, the debate continues
From: ronkean at juno.com
Reply-To: WSFA members <WSFAlist at KeithLynch.net>

On Sun, 7 Oct 2007 23:31:56 -0400 (EDT) "Keith F. Lynch"
<kfl at KeithLynch.net> writes:

-- it takes longer to get to Colorado by bicycle than by
> jet plane, so knowing that each hour on a jet is, say, twice as
> likely
> to kill me as each hour on a bicycle doesn't tell me which is the
> safer way to get to Denver unless I first convert the numbers to
> passenger miles.
>

That's logical, and since deaths per passenger mile statistics for
various transport modes are easy to obtain, that's an easy wasy to
estimate the risk.  But there is more to the picture.  In the case of air
travel, I suspect that airport risk, traffic density, weather,
maintenance quality, and human factors  together are so variable that
real risk can vary by orders of magnitude from the risk estimated from
overall passenger mile statistics.  Much, even perhaps most, of the
danger in air travel is concentrated in take-offs and landings, so
airport risk is important.  The Denver airport probably has top of the
line equipment, and plenty of space and runways, which is good, but on
the other hand Denver is a hub with high traffic density.  Denver air is
thin in the summer, which makes for more dangerous take-offs and
landings.  Among other risks, there have been cases of alcohol-impaired
flight crews.  An airliner crashed off the California coast due to a
stipped lag screw which had not been detected during maintenance.  That
was a very dangerous plane to fly in, in hindsight.  An airliner crashed
into the 14th st. bridge due to ice on the wings.

> > Mine is not the largest vehicle on the road by a long shot.  The
> bus> > you ride in is much larger and gets much lower gas mileage.
>
> Lower for the whole vehicle, but a lot higher per passenger.
>

In third world countries, urban and inter-urban jitneys are filled to
overflowing, so they get high gas mileage per passenger.  In this area, I
think gas mileage per passenger on the busses is actually rather poor
most of the time (outside rush hours) due to low passenger load factors.
The economics of bus service includes much more than fuel cost per
passenger.  The driver has to be paid, and the busses and related
infrastructure and overhead must be paid for.  On the whole, including
factors such as convenience, the private car is usually superior to
public bus service.  There are exceptions, e.g. Manhattan.  And riding a
bus is less costly than using a taxi.

We need to have urban bus service because a significant portion of the
population doesn't drive or doesn't have a private motor vehicle, and
even those who normally drive themselves sometimes need alternative
transportation.  But urban bus service is a chronic money loser, and most
people, given the choice, prefer to drive their own vehicle, most of the
time.  Weekend before last, I rode Mont. Co. Ride-On busses from Bethesda
to Gaithersburg early on a Saturday evening.  It cost me only $1.25 out
of my pocket, but it took nearly two hours, counting waits at two bus
stops, and travel time as the bus winds its way circuitously through
neighborhoods on its route.  If the bus trip were free, I would rather
drive myself.  If they paid me $5 to take the bus I would still rather
drive myself.

Admittedly, $1.25 is a cheap price to ride from Bethesda to Gaithersburg,
but the true economic cost must have been far higher than what I paid.
There were maybe 10 people, average, on each bus, for, say 1.5 hours
running time.  Assuming each of 10 riders pays $1.25 for 1.5 hours
running time, that's $8.34 fare revenue per running hour for the bus.
When compared with an estimated cost of running the bus of $150 per hour
(including driver and overhead), somebody must be losing money on that
deal.  If $150 per hour sounds high for running a bus and paying a driver
with full benefits, consider that running a car costs about $15 to $20
per hour, without paying the driver.  An urban bus running 18 hours per
day will clock over 100,000 miles per year.  The bus rapidly depreciates
and requires ongoing expensive maintenance.

As Mike B. has pointed out, a private car allows the user to carry more
cargo, and more conveniently, than would an urban commuter bus.

> Everyone going north would have vertically polarized headlights
> and windshields, and everyone going south would have horizontally
> polarized headlights and windshields?  ...

> (Maybe people going east could have red headlights and red-tinted
> windshields, and people going west could have blue headlights and
> blue-tinted windshields?)
>

If oncoming headlights are polarized vertically, and are viewed through a
horizontally polarized filter, the headlights would not be seen, risking
head-on collisions.  Much the same problem would seem to exist with blue
headlights viewed through a filter which passes only red light.

Ron Kean

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