Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2012 22:50:54 -0500
From: "Mike B." <yahoo at omniphile.com>
To: wsfa-forum at yahoogroups.com
CC: Michael Walsh <walshmichaelj at gmail.com>,
 WSFA members <WSFAlist at keithlynch.net>
Subject: [WSFA] Re: [wsfa-forum] Predicting the future? Be careful ....
Reply-To: WSFA members <WSFAlist at KeithLynch.net>

On 1/19/2012 10:13 AM, Michael Walsh wrote:
> http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=pogue-all-time-worst=
-tech-predictions

* "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."=97Thomas
Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

That's similar to what Seymour Cray was told by CDC...that there was a
market for, at most, 15 supercomputers, so they wanted him to
concentrate on business computers.  So he quit and started Cray
Research.  He wasn't interested in designing business computers.  If it
wasn't at least 10 times faster than the currently fastest machine on
the planet, it wasn't worth his time to design it. I was working for
Cray Research in the late 80s when they installed their 100th machine.
Those machines averaged about $12 million each.

CDC realized their mistake in the mid-80s and started a subsidiary
called ETA to develop supercomputers to compete with Cray.  They made
lots of claims, but couldn't follow through.  After missing delivery
deadlines and failing to enlist any partners, they eventually shut ETA
down and filled their orders by buying Cray machines.

-- Mike B.